Did 2026 Redistricting Work? Results by State

Published November 5, 2026. Results are unofficial until each state certifies them, and figures may change as counting continues.

Short answer: mostly no for Republicans, and yes for California Democrats. Republicans are projected to win just two of the 15 seats they targeted through new maps, according to Decision Desk HQ projections reported by The Hill. Democrats won all five seats they targeted in California.

Congressional maps are normally redrawn after each census. President Trump urged Texas Republicans last year to redraw mid-decade, and other states followed. A Supreme Court ruling that weakened Voting Rights Act protections for majority-Black districts then spurred more changes in the South.

Results by state

These are projections from November 4 and 5, and some races were still uncalled.

The AP counted eight states where Republicans redrew maps. RealClearPolitics counted nine states using new maps, which includes California and Utah, where a court-ordered map created one Democratic-leaning seat.

Why the Republican maps underperformed

They relied on 2024 voting patterns. Nearly all the new Republican districts would have given Trump more than 54% in 2024, by AP’s estimate. But about 6 in 10 voters in the AP Voter Poll disapproved of how he is handling the presidency.

Hispanic voters moved. The Texas plan leaned on heavily Latino South Texas districts that had shifted toward Trump. AP’s poll suggests about a third of Hispanic voters backed Republican House candidates, compared with roughly 4 in 10 who voted for Trump in 2024. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez both won re-election.

Voters were spread thin. Building new Republican seats meant shifting Republican voters out of existing ones. In a strong Democratic year, that can put safer seats at risk. The Hill pointed to North Carolina as an example, where Democrats were also within two points in five more districts on Wednesday. Rep. Monica De La Cruz lost a district where about 3 in 5 voting-age residents were new to her.

One caveat is that these outcomes can’t show what would have happened under the old lines. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis argued that his state’s new map prevented two Republican losses that the old map would have produced. The national environment also pushed many districts well beyond what any map could have absorbed.

Why California’s map delivered

Proposition 50, approved by voters in 2025, replaced the commission-drawn map for 2026 through 2030. It moved its targets sharply toward Democrats and packed Republican voters into fewer districts. California Republicans are on track to fall from nine House seats to four. Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim were placed in the same district, and Rep. Darrell Issa retired.

What comes next

More map fights are likely before 2028. Maryland voters approved an amendment that makes it easier for the Democratic-led legislature to redraw districts, and New York Democrats have taken a first step. Democratic gains in state legislatures and governorships could give the party more opportunities elsewhere.

Experts quoted by AP cautioned that the 2026 results also show how hard voter behavior is to predict, and 2028 will be the first presidential election in a dozen years without Trump on the ballot.

See the latest House results.