How Voters Decided the 2026 Midterms: AP Voter Poll

Published November 5, 2026. Results are unofficial until each state certifies them, and figures may change as counting continues.

How to read these numbers: this is survey data, not a count of ballots. The AP Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS for AP and several news networks, blending probability and non-probability interviews with registered voters in all 50 states. It shows what voters said, not exactly why any race turned out as it did. Figures below come from that poll unless we say otherwise.

The top issues

Few voters named foreign policy or crime as the top issue. Roughly half said government corruption and the cost of living were “crucial” to their vote for Congress, more than said so about immigration enforcement, the war in Iran or AI data centers.

Among voters who named the state of democracy as the top issue, about 8 in 10 supported the Democratic House candidate.

Views of President Trump

About 6 in 10 voters disapproved of how Trump is handling the presidency. A similar share said he places his personal interests above the country’s.

Asked about their House vote:

• About 4 in 10 wanted to express opposition to Trump.
• Just under 2 in 10 wanted to express support for him.
• Roughly 4 in 10 said he was not a factor.

Views of Congress

About three-quarters of voters disapproved of how Congress is handling its job. Roughly 7 in 10 said it is doing “not enough” to check the presidency. That view extended beyond Democrats, including most independents and about 4 in 10 Republicans. It is one measure of the expectations facing the incoming Congress.

Young voters

The poll shows about 7 in 10 voters under 30 backing the Democratic House candidate, compared with a rough split between Trump and Kamala Harris among young voters in 2024. They make up only about 1 in 10 voters, which limits their effect.

Researchers at Tufts University’s CIRCLE have published separate early estimates, using different data:

• About 27% of young people voted, with a margin of error of two points. That matches CIRCLE’s early 2022 estimate and trails only 2018 among midterms in the past 30 years.
• 66% of voters aged 18–29 chose a Democratic House candidate, and 31% chose a Republican.
• Young women backed Democrats by more than young men, 70% to 59%.

CIRCLE cautions that exit-poll data can overstate turnout and plans to update its estimate in spring 2027 using voter files.

Hispanic voters

About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters said they backed the Democratic House candidate, and about a third backed the Republican. Roughly 4 in 10 voted for Trump in 2024, so the poll suggests Republicans lost some but not all of the ground they had gained. About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters said Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions. AP has linked this shift to the failure of redrawn districts in South Texas.

A win without a popular brand

The poll also complicates any simple reading of the result. Democrats had a slight edge on the economy and government corruption, a small one on foreign policy and wider leads on health care and transgender issues. Republicans had a small edge on immigration. Voters split on artificial intelligence and taxes.

Many voters said they trust neither party. Just under half viewed the Democratic Party favorably, and about 4 in 10 viewed the Republican Party favorably. So the results may reflect dissatisfaction with those in power as much as enthusiasm for the winners, which is consistent with what voters said but cannot be proved by one survey.

See the full 2026 results.